Example result based on the prefilled values.
Tax-Free Cash Modelled
£0.00
Opening Drawdown Pot
£250,000.00
Baseline Pot Duration
21 years
Early-Fall Stress Duration
15 years
Baseline Pot at Age 80
£106,302.30
Stressed Pot at Age 80
£0.00
Baseline Pot at Age 90
£0.00
Stressed Pot at Age 90
£0.00
Net Assumed Return After Charges
4.21%
Continue your plan
Useful next calculations
Rates & sources2026/27
User-entered drawdown stress model. Tax-free cash is deducted from the invested pot and capped by the remaining lump sum allowance entered; returns are assumptions, not forecasts.
Source: GOV.UK — pension lump sum allowance — source checked for 2026/27.
When to use this calculator
- Before choosing between saving, investing, or increasing your monthly contribution.
- When you want to compare best-case, base-case, and cautious return assumptions.
- When you need a quick projection before making a longer-term portfolio decision.
- When you are deciding how many more years of contributions are needed to reach a specific target balance.
- When you want to see whether starting earlier versus contributing more each month produces a bigger outcome.
A realistic UK planning example
Use these sample inputs as a quick scenario test, then change one variable at a time to compare outcomes.
Pension pot before tax-free cash (£)
250000
Tax-free cash to model (%)
Enter your own figure
Your remaining lump sum allowance (£)
Enter your own figure
First-year gross withdrawal (£)
£35,000
After entering these figures, review tax-free cash modelled, opening drawdown pot and baseline pot duration together rather than in isolation — each metric tells a different part of the story. Then rerun the tool with one input adjusted to see which variable has the biggest effect on all three outputs before you settle on a plan.
How to read your results
Tax-Free Cash Modelled
Review this figure alongside your gross income so you can understand the true cost of deductions and plan around any thresholds before the tax year closes. If the figure looks higher than expected, check whether any pension or gift-aid contributions could reduce your taxable income.
Opening Drawdown Pot
Use this metric to compare scenarios side by side and understand how changes in the key inputs drive the final outcome. If the figure surprises you, isolate one variable at a time and rerun the calculation to identify which assumption is responsible.
Baseline Pot Duration
Use this metric to compare scenarios side by side and understand how changes in the key inputs drive the final outcome. If the figure surprises you, isolate one variable at a time and rerun the calculation to identify which assumption is responsible.
Early-Fall Stress Duration
Use this metric to compare scenarios side by side and understand how changes in the key inputs drive the final outcome. If the figure surprises you, isolate one variable at a time and rerun the calculation to identify which assumption is responsible.
Baseline Pot at Age 80
Use this metric to compare scenarios side by side and understand how changes in the key inputs drive the final outcome. If the figure surprises you, isolate one variable at a time and rerun the calculation to identify which assumption is responsible.
Stressed Pot at Age 80
Use this metric to compare scenarios side by side and understand how changes in the key inputs drive the final outcome. If the figure surprises you, isolate one variable at a time and rerun the calculation to identify which assumption is responsible.
Baseline Pot at Age 90
Use this metric to compare scenarios side by side and understand how changes in the key inputs drive the final outcome. If the figure surprises you, isolate one variable at a time and rerun the calculation to identify which assumption is responsible.
Stressed Pot at Age 90
Use this metric to compare scenarios side by side and understand how changes in the key inputs drive the final outcome. If the figure surprises you, isolate one variable at a time and rerun the calculation to identify which assumption is responsible.
Net Assumed Return After Charges
Use this to compare scenarios over different time horizons and judge whether the projected outcome clears your minimum required target. Remember that real-world returns fluctuate, so also check the result under a more conservative growth assumption.
Method & assumptionsAuthoritative sources
This stress tester starts with the pension pot entered and deducts the tax-free cash percentage modelled, capped by the remaining lump sum allowance entered. That fixes the previous misleading assumption that the full pre-lump-sum pot remained available for drawdown.
The baseline applies the entered return and charges each year before taking the withdrawal. The stress case applies the entered market fall in the first year, then returns to the same long-run assumption. If selected, withdrawals increase with inflation. Values at ages 80 and 90 make the effect of an early fall visible rather than calling a smooth projection sustainable.
Returns are not forecasts and real sequencing is more complex than one early fall. Tax on withdrawals, asset allocation, State Pension, other income, provider rules, MPAA effects and protected lump-sum allowances are not calculated. Check your available lump sum allowance with providers and use Pension Wise or regulated advice before accessing a pension.
Common mistakes
- !Assuming a constant return without checking a more conservative growth rate.
- !Forgetting to include ongoing contributions, fees, or tax wrappers where relevant.
- !Focusing only on the final balance instead of the path required to reach it.
- !Ignoring the drag of platform fees or fund charges, which can reduce the real compounded return significantly over ten or more years.
- !Comparing ISA and general investment account projections without adjusting for the tax treatment of interest, dividends, or capital gains.
What to do next
- Test a cautious, expected, and optimistic growth rate instead of relying on a single projection.
- Compare this result with related savings or retirement tools before committing more money.
- Use the linked guides to understand which assumptions matter most over longer periods.
- Consider running the same figures in an ISA and a general account scenario to see how the tax treatment changes the outcome over ten or more years.
- If the projected balance falls short of your target, use the tool to work backwards — increase the monthly contribution until the result meets your goal.
Frequently asked
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