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Pension Drawdown Stress Tester

Stress-test how long a pension drawdown pot may last after tax-free cash, inflation-linked withdrawals, investment charges and an early market fall.

UK · 2026/27Last reviewed 4 August 2026Reviewed after a methodology changeSource: GOV.UK — pension lump sum allowance

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Calculator inputs

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Related to this calculation

Rates & sources2026/27

User-entered drawdown stress model. Tax-free cash is deducted from the invested pot and capped by the remaining lump sum allowance entered; returns are assumptions, not forecasts.

Rates used for 2026/27
Band / figureRate
Standard lump sum allowance£268,275
Usual tax-free proportionup to 25%
Returns, charges and inflationentered by you
Withdrawal taxnot modelled

Source: GOV.UK — pension lump sum allowance — source checked for 2026/27.

When to use this calculator

  • Before choosing between saving, investing or changing a contribution.
  • When you want to compare cautious, base and optimistic return assumptions.
  • When you need a projection before making a longer-term decision.
  • When you want to see whether starting earlier or contributing more changes the outcome more.

A realistic UK planning example

Use these sample inputs as a quick scenario test, then change one variable at a time to compare outcomes.

A realistic UK planning example
InputValue
Pension pot before tax-free cash (£)250000
Tax-free cash to model (%)Enter your own figure
Your remaining lump sum allowance (£)Enter your own figure
First-year gross withdrawal (£)£35,000

After entering these figures, review tax-free cash modelled, opening drawdown pot and baseline pot duration together rather than in isolation. Then rerun the tool with one input adjusted.

How to read your results

Tax-Free Cash Modelled

Review this figure alongside your gross income so you can understand deductions before the tax year closes. It is a planning estimate, not a filed return.

Opening Drawdown Pot

The figure produced by this output for the inputs you entered. Change one variable at a time if you want to see what drives it.

Baseline Pot Duration

The figure produced by this output for the inputs you entered. Change one variable at a time if you want to see what drives it.

Early-Fall Stress Duration

The figure produced by this output for the inputs you entered. Change one variable at a time if you want to see what drives it.

Baseline Pot at Age 80

The figure produced by this output for the inputs you entered. Change one variable at a time if you want to see what drives it.

Stressed Pot at Age 80

The figure produced by this output for the inputs you entered. Change one variable at a time if you want to see what drives it.

Baseline Pot at Age 90

The figure produced by this output for the inputs you entered. Change one variable at a time if you want to see what drives it.

Stressed Pot at Age 90

The figure produced by this output for the inputs you entered. Change one variable at a time if you want to see what drives it.

Net Assumed Return After Charges

A projected outcome under the growth rate you entered. Real-world returns fluctuate, so also check a more conservative assumption.

Method & assumptionsAuthoritative sources

This stress tester starts with the pension pot entered and deducts the tax-free cash percentage modelled, capped by the remaining lump sum allowance entered. That fixes the previous misleading assumption that the full pre-lump-sum pot remained available for drawdown.

The baseline applies the entered return and charges each year before taking the withdrawal. The stress case applies the entered market fall in the first year, then returns to the same long-run assumption. If selected, withdrawals increase with inflation. Values at ages 80 and 90 make the effect of an early fall visible rather than calling a smooth projection sustainable.

Returns are not forecasts and real sequencing is more complex than one early fall. Tax on withdrawals, asset allocation, State Pension, other income, provider rules, MPAA effects and protected lump-sum allowances are not calculated. Check your available lump sum allowance with providers and use Pension Wise or regulated advice before accessing a pension.

Common mistakes

  • !Assuming a constant return without checking a more conservative growth rate.
  • !Forgetting ongoing contributions, fees or tax wrappers where relevant.
  • !Focusing only on the final balance instead of the path required to reach it.
  • !Ignoring the drag of charges over a long period.

What to do next

  • Test a cautious, expected and optimistic growth rate.
  • Compare this result with related savings or retirement tools before committing more money.
  • Consider charges and any tax wrapper that applies.
  • If the projected balance falls short, increase the contribution until the result meets your goal.

Frequently asked

Pension drawdown — formally known as flexi-access drawdown — lets you keep your pension pot invested while taking income withdrawals at a rate and frequency of your choosing. You can take up to 25% of your pot as a tax-free lump sum (capped at £268,275 from April 2024), with the remainder forming your drawdown fund. Withdrawals from the drawdown fund are taxed as income. The key risk is that poor investment returns or excessive withdrawals can deplete the pot before you die.

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